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AU Expectations? high or low? my thoughts Options
tgr4lfe
#1 Posted : Wednesday, July 15, 2009 12:49:46 PM
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I don't think AU will do as bad as most folks (media and rivals) want to think. Here's why....CGM will tailor his offense to the skills and abilities of the athletes he has as he has done everywhere he has been OC, unlike CTF who just wanted to put his offense on display on the SEC big stage to sell more books to high schools and small colleges. By CGM doing this AU will see the benefits by better offensive production. I think CGM will want a QB at the helm that can manage the game and get the ball downfield, remember AU does have some WRs that can stretch it out, and with new coaching by a fantastic WR coach, will make an impact in the AU offense. B/c of this I think we will see Caudle or Todd (assuming a 100% healthy arm)as the starting QB. Rollison might suprise coming in, but he would have to be head and shoulders above the others, for the coaching staff to put a freshman on the field at QB. I just think CGM's offense is geared more toward a passing, game control QB, and not a running QB with mediocre throwing skills. This is not to say that Burns won't improve drastically or that CGM might not modify the offense to Burns skills, but I see Caudle starting. This is only bad b/c Caudle has little game experience, as most of the rest of the SEC west QBs, but he will give AU the downfield passing threat that has been non-existent since Campbell was on the Plains. I also think CGM will gear the offense to put the ball in the hands of playmakers, Fannin, Pierre-Louis, Tate, Benton, etc. With CGMs multi formation sets, all of these guys could be on the field at the same time! I don't foresee AU going undefeated, but I think AU has the talent and capability in winning most games. I think 8-10 wins benefitting from the fact that all other SEC West teams are breaking in new QBs, except for Ole Miss.

Taking a look at last years total offense rankings ( i know it hurts to look), but Tulsa with offense led by OC, CGM ranked #1, averaging 78 plays/game, 7.27 yards/play, 569 yards/game, and putting up 90 TDs (almsot 6.5 TDs/game!!) COMPARED to AU offense ranked at #104, averaging 67.5 plays/game, 4.49 yards/play, 302.92 yards/game, and only 25 TDs (2.08 TDs/game) for the year. IF AU just improves halfway b/t to around #50 in total offense, increasing to over 70 plays/game, 5.88 yards/play, 435 yards/game, and 57.5 TDs on the year or average of 4 TDs/game, we will see huge improvements in the win column b/c as mentioned we were w/in striking distance to win in 5 of the 7 losses last year!! AU turns that around in our favor, assuming the D stays as strong as last year, but I think the D will be a little bit better this year that is a swing of 4 or 5 wins. I don't know that we will in fact see this significant of improvement in the offense in one year, but I think we will see a AU offense that will be a power running offense that has the passing game to finally keep the D on their heels! If AU can just increase the scoring output to half of what Tulsa did, forget about all the other stats, we will win several more games. I know the D will be tight with CGC. This of course, is dependant on a relatively injury free season, especially on the OL, which has hurt the past 2 years.
NCAA Total Offense Stats 2008
RankName Games Plays Yds Avg TDs Ydspgm WinsLossesTies
1Tulsa 14 1097 7978 7.27 90 569.86 11 3
5Florida 14 874 6231 7.13 82 445.07 13 1
22Georgia 13 826 5538 6.70 52 426.00 10 3
29Mississippi 13 860 5299 6.16 52 407.62 9 4
49Arkansas 12 821 4477 5.45 34 373.08 5 7
55LSU 13 886 4785 5.40 50 368.08 8 5
63Alabama 14 902 4981 5.52 52 355.79 12 2
104Auburn 12 810 3635 4.49 25 302.92 5 7
106Kentucky 13 859 3891 4.53 36 299.31 7 6
113MississippiSt.12 782 3299 4.22 23 274.92 4 8
115Tennessee 12 718 3225 4.49 26 268.75 5 7
117Vanderbilt 13 790 3331 4.22 30 256.23 7 6
GatorChomp
#2 Posted : Sunday, July 26, 2009 10:25:31 PM
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I honestly think much of the AU season relies on the QB position. It was downright abysmal last year.

If they can find a QB, and give him time in the pocket with a shored up OL, Auburn's got enough talent to be in the thick of things in the west.

Their defense was much better last year than people know, because it was over-shadowed by how bad the offense was.
PorkRoast
#3 Posted : Wednesday, July 29, 2009 7:36:23 AM
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Location: Pine Bluff, Arkansas
I'm not sure I've even heard expectations for Auburn yet this year. And that's strange. With a new coach and a new system, you usually hear a lot about where a team will fit in.

tgr4lfe, what are you hearing? Do you expect the expectations to be all quiet until camp gets going?

You hearing anything about Rollinson?
Bamagrad03
#4 Posted : Wednesday, July 29, 2009 7:44:16 AM
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Location: Birmingham, AL
I've made it no secret that I think Tyrik is a special talent. He was the best QB at the Army AA game.

I think he ends up starting at Auburn. But regardless of ability, if you're starting a true freshman at QB, you're gonna struggle a bit.

Combine that with a shaky OLine, and I think Auburn sees a lot of growing pains this year.


tgr4lfe
#5 Posted : Wednesday, July 29, 2009 9:04:02 AM
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Well, basically, porkroast, no one is giving Auburn a snowballs chance b/c of the new coaching staff, implementing a new offense, probably a new QB, which are all valid points. The depth issue at OL is of concern as BG points out.
Rollison is a fantastic athlete and QB, and definitely will be pushing for the starting job. I have NO idea who is going to end up being the starter. Like I said in my original post, I think Malzahn will tailor the offense to the strengths of the players AND will want a QB that is more of a passer/runner than a runner/passer. Rollison brings BOTH of those things to the table unlike any other QB on the roster, but he is a freshman, and we all know how freshman starting QBs fair in the SEC. I don't know if Rollison will earn a spot this year or not, but for sure next year he will be starting.
There will be some experienced talent surrounding the QB at the skill positons (with exception at WR, where we will probably see some young faces, i.e. Benton), at TE, RB, and even on the OL. The talent is there, depth at certain positions could be the difference. Defensively, I think the Tigers will be strong, again depth at the LB position is of concern, but there is some great experience and talent returning, along with newcomer Freeman at LB, I think the defense will once again be the backbone of the team, but not have to carry as much of the load as last year, primarily b/c of Malzahn's schemes.
I think the Tigers are looking at 7-9 wins, a majority of that dependant on the QB position. I just don't see as bad of a year on offense as last year. I guess after that debacle there is no where to go but up, huh? RollEyes
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